AGP Executive Report

Abyei Trade: The October 19 drone strike on Amiet market—a reported node in fuel routes into Sudan—has killed at least 153 people, according to local officials; the UN has confirmed at least 80. Sudan denies its army’s role. Growth Outlook: South Sudan is forecast to grow 10.5% in 2026, but the rebound depends heavily on oil exports recovering after pipeline disruptions. Oil accounts for about 95% of exports, leaving the economy vulnerable to renewed shocks. Trade Policy: The government and UNDP are developing a trade framework and five-year country programme to guide investment and help connect South Sudan to regional and global markets. Farm Incomes: Twelve farmer groups in Yei and Magwi received cereal-grinding machines expected to cut processing costs and create income opportunities; women make up 60% of group members. Oil Exploration: South Sudan is promoting seismic surveys to identify new prospects, with 14 blocks open to investors and much of the country still underexplored.

Trade Links: South Sudan and UNDP are developing a trade policy framework to guide investment and connect the country to regional and global markets. Rural Enterprise: GIZ has supplied 12 grinding machines to farmer groups in Yei and Magwi, aiming to cut processing costs and create income opportunities. Growth Outlook: South Sudan is forecast to grow 10.5% in 2026, largely on an oil-sector rebound after pipeline disruptions; dependence on crude leaves the recovery exposed to new shocks. Oil Investment: New seismic technology could help assess the country’s underexplored oil blocks and attract investment. Fuel-Supply Risk: The deadly strike on Abyei’s Amiet market has highlighted how fuel trade routes linking South Sudan and Sudan are entangled in the war, putting regional commerce at risk.

Farm Incomes: GIZ has provided 12 cereal-grinding machines to farmer groups in Yei and Magwi. The groups, each with 25 members and 60% women, expect lower processing costs and new income opportunities. Trade Links: The government and UNDP are developing a trade policy framework and a five-year programme to guide investment priorities and connect South Sudan to regional and global markets. Abyei Market Fallout: Sudan denies responsibility for the drone strike on Amiet Market, where local authorities report 220 deaths. The attack on a vital trading hub underscores the risks conflict poses to commerce and livelihoods. Oil Investment: New seismic technology could help turn South Sudan’s underexplored oil blocks into viable prospects. The November South Sudan Oil & Power conference in Juba will bring investors and technical partners together as the country seeks to expand exploration and regional ties.

Fuel and Regional Trade: Aliko Dangote’s reported $335 million purchase of a 24.76% stake in Kenya Pipeline Company, plus a $1.5 billion expansion pledge, could strengthen fuel distribution to landlocked markets including South Sudan. His planned Lamu refinery could also reshape regional supply. Abyei Market Attack: The drone strike on Amiet Market killed 153 people and destroyed businesses, hitting a vital trading hub and raising fears of spillover from Sudan’s war. Growth Outlook: South Sudan is projected to record Africa’s fastest economic growth in 2026, at 10.5%, though the forecast comes amid serious food and climate risks. Trade Links: South Sudan and Uganda have agreed to tackle border delays, a key step for traders seeking smoother access to each other’s markets. Climate Risks: The UN warns an extreme El Niño could deepen hunger and disrupt livelihoods; South Sudan is among 11 countries targeted for emergency support.

Trade Disruption: The deadly drone strike on Amiet Market in Abyei has killed 153 people and damaged businesses and fuel depots at a vital trading hub. South Sudan is calling for an investigation and accountability. Fuel Infrastructure: Aliko Dangote has bought a 25% stake in Kenya Pipeline Company for about $335 million and pledged $1.5 billion toward network expansion. The pipeline supplies South Sudan and other regional markets, linking the investment to fuel access and trade. Climate and Food Risks: The UN warns El Niño could intensify sharply, raising drought and flood risks. Up to 50 million people worldwide may face increased hunger, and South Sudan is among countries targeted for emergency support. Cross-Border Trade: Uganda’s exports rose 36% in August, with gold a major driver; Uganda also processes gold from South Sudan and other neighbours. A recent South Sudan-Uganda trade deal aims to reduce border delays.

Abyei Market Losses: A drone strike on Amiet Market has killed at least 153 people, according to local officials, and set a nearby fuel depot ablaze. The busy trading hub’s destruction and the displacement of about 8,000 people threaten livelihoods and cross-border commerce. Fuel Infrastructure: Aliko Dangote has bought a 25% stake in Kenya Pipeline Company for about $335 million and plans to invest a further $1.5 billion in its network, which supplies South Sudan and other regional markets. The deal links distribution with his planned refinery at Kenya’s Lamu port. Climate Risks: The UN warns El Niño could reach unprecedented strength, bringing extreme heat, drought and floods. Its impacts could deepen food and price pressures across East Africa, so early preparation is vital. Growth Outlook: South Sudan is forecast to lead sub-Saharan Africa in economic growth this year, but households still face high prices and strained incomes.

Abyei Market Attack: A drone strike on Amiet Market, a major trading hub near the Sudan border, has killed at least 153 people and set a nearby fuel depot ablaze. The attack has disrupted commerce and displaced residents as South Sudan protests to Khartoum. Government Appointments: Ahead of December elections, acting ministers have been assigned to vacant portfolios, with Petroleum and Finance ministers taking responsibility for each other’s ministries. Regional Trade: South Sudan and Uganda have agreed to tackle border delays, a key step for traders seeking smoother access to markets and factories. Economic Outlook: South Sudan is forecast to post Africa’s fastest growth this year, at 10.5%, though the figure contrasts with persistent pressure on prices and wages.

Abyei Trade Shock: The death toll from the drone strike on Amiet Market has risen to 220, with 19 injured, according to local authorities. The attack hit a major trading hub and displaced about 8,000 people; officials blame Sudan’s military, but responsibility has not been independently verified. Tax Capacity: South Sudan’s revenue authority has begun five days of training for 50 staff in oil, gas, extractive-sector and hospitality taxation, aiming to strengthen assessment and collection. Regional Trade: South Sudan and Uganda have signed a trade deal promising to tackle border delays, a key barrier for traders and exporters. Oil Revenues: Melut County has replaced the committee overseeing its 3% community share of oil revenues, but gave no reason for the change. Growth Outlook: South Sudan is forecast to lead sub-Saharan Africa’s growth in 2026, at 10.5%.

Abyei Market Strike: A drone attack on Amiet Market killed at least 73 people, according to local officials, who blamed Sudan’s army; the allegation has not been independently verified. The strike hit trading areas, including a fuel section, and South Sudan summoned Sudan’s ambassador to protest. Tax Capacity: The revenue authority has begun a five-day training programme for 50 staff on taxation in oil, gas, extractive and hospitality sectors, aiming to strengthen assessment and collection. Salary Payments: The central bank says civil servants can collect salaries in cash through their banks, though it did not specify the payment period or amounts as customers continue to report withdrawal limits. Trade Links: South Sudan and Djibouti discussed implementing their trade agreement, including White Nile river ports and a proposed Yei dry port. A separate deal with Uganda aims to reduce border delays and extra charges on the Juba–Nimule route. Growth and Prices: The IMF forecasts 10.5% growth this year, largely from oil, but a weak pound, high food prices and unpaid salary arrears continue to squeeze households.

Salary Payments: The Bank of South Sudan says civil servants can collect salaries in cash through commercial banks, but gave no details on the payment month or amounts as customers continue to report withdrawal limits. Trade Links: South Sudan and Djibouti discussed implementing a trade pact, including plans for river ports and a dry port in Yei. A separate deal with Uganda aims to tackle border delays, repeated inspections and unofficial charges that raise costs for traders. Markets at Risk: A drone strike on Amiet Market in Abyei killed at least 73 people and injured 19, according to local officials; most victims were traders from Sudan and South Sudan. Growth and Prices: The IMF forecasts 10.5% growth in 2026, but oil-led expansion has yet to ease high prices or improve many households’ purchasing power. Local Production: Juba food businesses are expanding with support for equipment, creating jobs and increasing local supplies of bread, cooking oil and eggs.

Trade with Uganda: South Sudan and Uganda have signed a deal to tackle border delays, repeated cargo checks and unofficial charges. Uganda exports about $524 million in goods to South Sudan each year, while South Sudan exports only $22 million to Uganda. Traders also want direct access to Ugandan manufacturers. Growth and prices: The IMF forecasts South Sudan’s economy will grow 10.5% in 2026, the region’s fastest rate, largely as oil exports recover. But a weak pound, high prices and unpaid salary arrears mean families are not feeling the boom. Local food businesses: Juba bakery Lulu Bakes has grown from two workers to 14, mostly women, using local sorghum and millet. A WFP grant also helped a local oil producer and poultry farm expand, though farmers say they still need reliable markets, storage and finance. Investment push: South Sudan is seeking Saudi investment in several sectors, as Finance Minister Athian Ding Athian met the Saudi Development Fund during IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok.

Oil Security: About 500 newly trained officers are being deployed to protect Paloch’s oil fields ahead of December’s elections. Oil revenues underpin much of South Sudan’s budget, making stable production critical. Growth and Investment: The IMF forecasts 10.5% growth in 2026, the region’s fastest, but this follows a 7.7% contraction in 2025; inflation is still projected at 33.3%. In Bangkok, South Sudan sought Saudi investment and stronger World Bank cooperation, but no commitments were announced. Regional Trade: Border delays and restricted market access continue to strain Uganda–South Sudan commerce. Ugandan traders say 90,000 bags of charcoal from South Sudan, worth about 2.4 billion shillings, are stranded at the border. Agriculture: FAO showcased farming, livestock and fisheries innovations in Terekeka as South Sudan faces severe food insecurity.

Growth Outlook: The IMF projects South Sudan’s economy to grow 10.5% in 2026, the region’s fastest rate, after a 7.7% contraction in 2025. The rebound remains vulnerable to oil disruptions, and the forecast does not guarantee better living standards. Investment Push: In Bangkok, Finance Minister Athian Ding Athian discussed investment opportunities with the Saudi Development Fund and stronger cooperation with the World Bank. Trade Routes: South Sudan’s new membership in a regional maritime body could help improve access to shipping and international markets. But Uganda–South Sudan trade faces border delays and restricted market access; Ugandan traders say charcoal shipments worth about 2.4 billion shillings are stranded at the border. Food and Markets: FAO showcased farming innovations in Terekeka as South Sudan faces severe food insecurity, with 7.8 million people reported at risk. The parallel exchange rate averaged SSP 7,439 per US dollar in early October, adding pressure on import costs.

Growth Outlook: The IMF projects South Sudan’s economy to grow 10.5% in 2026, slowing to 3.9% in 2027 after an exceptional 41.4% in 2025. Heavy reliance on oil leaves the outlook exposed to disruptions in production and exports. Cross-Border Trade: Uganda and South Sudan are pursuing a trade deal, but traders say border delays, unofficial charges and limited access to suppliers are holding back business. A separate charcoal blockade has left more than 90,000 bags, valued at about 2.4 billion Ugandan shillings, stranded at the border. Trade Links: South Sudan’s new membership in a regional maritime body offers a platform to improve freight logistics and access to overseas markets. The country is also seeking cargo-depot access in Tanzania. Oil Sector: President Salva Kiir received a petroleum-sector progress report that included an update on a refinery construction project in Lamu, Kenya.

Cross-Border Trade: Charcoal shipments from South Sudan remain blocked at Uganda’s border, leaving more than 90,000 bags worth about 2.4 billion Ugandan shillings stranded. Traders say the goods were cleared and taxed; the dispute highlights the border delays and trade barriers facing businesses between the neighbours. Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts South Sudan’s economy will grow 10.5% in 2026, the fastest rate in sub-Saharan Africa, but growth is projected to slow to 3.9% in 2027. The country remains heavily reliant on oil revenues. Trade Links: South Sudan’s new cargo centre in Naivasha, plans to secure a cargo depot in Tanzania and entry into a regional maritime body signal efforts to improve access to ports and international markets. Kenya is expanding Mombasa port capacity and digital cargo systems, a potential boost for regional trade routes. Local Enterprise: A Juba-based women-led processor is turning locally grown oilseeds into cooking oil, linking 90 farmers to markets and offering a domestic alternative to imports.

Oil Sector: President Salva Kiir received a petroleum ministry progress report covering operations and a refinery project in Lamu, Kenya. Cross-Border Trade: Ugandan exporters warn that border delays, costly clearance and restricted market access threaten a key South Sudan market, where annual trade is about $700 million. Currency and Banking: The parallel exchange rate averaged SSP 7,439 per US dollar in early October, while the Bank of South Sudan launched a cybersecurity campaign to protect its systems and financial data. Trade Links: South Sudan joined the maritime organization MOESNA, seeking stronger cooperation on shipping, freight and access to international markets. Growth Outlook: The IMF forecasts 10.5% growth in 2026—the region’s fastest—but expects it to slow to 3.9% next year, underscoring the economy’s exposure to oil production and export disruptions. Local Production: A Juba women-led business is processing locally grown oilseeds into cooking oil, connecting 90 farmers to markets and helping reduce reliance on imports.